BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no cash game guards this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so that I like the floor she brings to the table. I also believe she wins the fight and I think she will be the fighter heading for takedowns. I don’t know how large her ceiling is in cash games it doesn’t really matter a lot because we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana at a decision win and I will take that all day in my money games.
GPP drama of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and the grappling advances really add up. I expect this to be a really fun battle, but it ought to be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find a minimum of 10x from my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he has even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a fight I hope to remain standing, I’ve quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I think it’s going to be an action-packed fight and I think someone gets pumped out. This is likewise the mid-range struggle of this week, so that I think a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to set them on the perfect lineup. I like it more because I’m choosing the underdog to get the knockout and I anticipate Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in over half of my lineups, but I shall probably have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a much better GPP fight than it’s for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I’ll have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at the wages and I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, then he likely scores mid 70’s and in his cost that will not win anyone a GPP. I don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not inclined to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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